| | JULY - 20208E ERGYTech ReviewAccelerating the Energy Transition ­ Can Electric Vehicles Show the Way?By Lucy Craig, Director, Energy Technology & Innovation, DNV GLDecades of dramatic change lie ahead for the energy sector, bringing both opportunities and risks. The world is starting to wean itself off fossil fuels and move towards a net-zero carbon future. There will be a profound shift towards electrification and generating that electricity from renewable sources. This transition from fossil-based to zero-carbon is happening fast but not quickly enough to meet the Paris Agreement's objectives to limit global warming to `well below 2°C', let alone 1.5°C. These are the stark conclusions from the recently published third edition of DNV GL's Energy Transition Outlook. Our modelling of the world's energy systems confirms that available technologies have the potential to close the `emissions gap,' the difference between the current rate of decarbonizing energy and the pace needed for global warming of 1.5°C. We believe that a combination of measures can get us there. Our checklist for the next decade includes growth of more than 1000 percent in solar power to 5 terawatts (TW) and 500 percent in wind power to 3 TW. Fifty million electrical vehicles (EVs) per year will be needed by 2030, requiring a 50-fold increase in batteries, and large-scale charging infrastructure. Other items on the list include more ultra-high voltage transmission networks; annual improvements in global energy intensity (the energy use per unit of output) by 3.5 percent; and low- and zero-carbon hydrogen to heat buildings and industry, fuel transport and capture value from surplus renewables.Without these extraordinary measures, our forecast indicates a world that will be 2.4°C warmer at the end of this century than in the immediate pre-industrial period. To enable the changes that technology can bring, extraordinary policy action is needed: policies that advance renewables, new de-carbonization technologies and systems, EVs and energy efficiency. Electric vehicles are an excellent example of a new technology that can accelerate change, when the right policy measures are in place. Transport currently accounts for 28 percent of total energy demand. Reducing the impact of climate change, hence, depends on electrification of transportation.Recent news reports show that in Europe, sales of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles totalled over a quarter of a million (259,000) in the first six months of 2019, which is up 34percent compared with the same period in 2018. The largest increase is in Germany, which displaced Norway as the leader in sales volume, although in terms of the total number of electric vehicles on the road in Europe, Norway remains the leader with over 10 percent of all vehicles on the road being EVs. Globally, DNV GL's analysis shows that there will be over 4 million EVs on the world's roads by the end of 2020, an increase of over 50percent year on year.Of course, a much bigger impact will be made in the world's largest countries. Thanks to major investment over the past decade, exceeding $60 Bn US, China is already leading the way in IN MY OPINION
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