Post-Pandemic Recovery and Energy Crisis

Most EU Member States successfully achieved the EU’s climate and energy objectives and are now focusing on climate neutrality while also addressing the current energy supply crisis.

FREMONT, CA: After a long period of falling greenhouse gas emissions in Europe, economic recovery from the pandemic lockdowns has increased the emissions, especially in the transport, industry, and energy supply sectors.

With an emerging energy crisis and, in particular, a high gas price, the energy supply sector observed a partial switch to more carbon-intensive energy fuels, while the strong growth in renewable energy witnessed in recent years was not present in previous years. To counter this development, it is critical that energy infrastructure decisions consider the climate neutrality target of the future to eliminate carbon lock-in effects.

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There is a need for critical action in the coming years to ensure EU member states deploy ambitious emissions reduction strategies to meet EU climate targets.

While short-term measures to accelerate energy supplies, these investments should not lock Europe into many more years of fossil fuel dependency. Saving energy and strengthening renewable energy sources are imperatives to tackle the immediate energy crisis and achieve climate neutrality.

Research reveals that greenhouse gas emissions increased by five per cent within a year. Energy consumption increased in primary and final energy consumption in the previous years. Primary energy consumption measures energy demand, while final energy consumption indicates what end users actually use. This increase in energy use is attributed to economic recovery. In the previous years, the rising energy price effect on the annual consumption figures was invisible and will be more apparent in the coming years.

Europe’s total share of renewable energy sources remained at 22 per cent of energy consumption in the previous year, pausing a strong growth in recent years. The lesser contributions explain this from wind and hydropower with rebounding energy consumption.

Substantial emissions reductions should be sustained year-on-year to achieve climate neutrality in the long term in the coming years. With the European climate law, the 2030 reduction aim was increased to at least a 55 per cent net decrease in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The European Parliament and the member states are discussing the comprehensive fit for the 55 packages and considering the proposed Repower EU plan.

To reach the 2030 target of 55 per cent net GHG emissions, emissions must decline by a massive amount of carbon dioxide. All sectors need to significantly increase efforts in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, carbon dioxide removal through land use should increase land use change and forestry, reversing the trends of a shrinking carbon sink in the EU.

On the other hand, energy use should substantially decrease over the next few years. The newly proposed 2030 target in the context of the REPower EU requires more than a doubling of annual energy savings. This same principle applies to renewable energies. Since 2005, the renewable energy share in Europe’s gross final energy consumption has grown every year and expects more growth in the coming years to meet the increased 45 per cent renewable energy target proposed in the REPowever EU.

While substantial advances have taken place at the member-state level, the current policies and measures are insufficient to meet the new ambitious climate and energy targets. In the coming year, member states will submit draft updates of their national energy and climate plans. This will allow them to step up their measures and develop plans for the future reflecting the new EU ambitions and the goal of climate neutrality.

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