Power from renewable sources backed up by batteries is rapidly closing the price gap with fossil fuels. The cost of solar electricity plus storage will be roughly equivalent to coal in essential markets.
FREMONT, CA: Renewable electricity may reach another exciting tipping point in 2023, despite rising worldwide power usage. Solar and wind energy growth is surpassing demand. Clean power can replace fossil fuels. A tipping point is when a seemingly minor change in one component significantly changes the outcome. If global warming continues, sea ice and forests may disappear. It marks the point where power sector emissions stop rising. Positive moments include the transition from fossil fuels to zero-emission technologies.
Climate change—forest loss and ice shelf collapse—is worrisome. Technological changes in all industries emit various hazardous gases. Power, transportation, buildings, industry, and agriculture are examples. The system aggressively resists change. People realize their old technology is better in ease, attractiveness, and affordability. Helping create and establish the new technology takes work and time. More people buy it, and more money is spent on it, the price drops, the quality improves, and so on, which makes more people want to buy it. Change accelerates after the threshold.
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Each technological revolution brings new technology that outperforms the old. Consumers want to purchase rather than produce, and investors like the unknown. Automobile development is a non-climate-related example. Its fun to remember how automobiles appeared before the shift—vehicles needed to be more reliable, costlier, and risky. At the start of that change, only inventors and a few loons sought cars as toys. Energy has the same issue. There are several tipping points. Solar and wind energy became cost-competitive with fossil fuels, an international norm.
Solar and wind power cost less than fossil fuel power. Building a solar or wind facility is cheaper than supplying coal or gas to a power plant. Renewables with energy storage are becoming competitive with coal and gas. Solar power plus storage will cost half as much as coal in major markets by the decade's end. Critical mass will be reached within a few years. Grid modernization, transition socioeconomics, entrenched interests, and power market reorganization are included. Each milestone increases everyone's trust in the transformation and conviction about it.
Cost-parity is just one tipping point. Like other emotions, confidence can increase peak. Technical and economic inflection points are like price parity for competing technologies. Governments have been debating and negotiating. Global pollution has worsened. They have been growing in every significant emitting business, save for outliers like the COVID-19 pandemic, which barely matters. Power sector emissions will decrease in 2023. Renewables will eventually outgrow the system, lowering emissions. The new technology gains momentum after the tipping point. Positive tipping points aren't limited to climate technology.